A prolonged suspension of Ukraine's maritime grain exports could have consequences far beyond the country's borders. According to Leonid Kozachenko, President of the Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation, Russian attacks on port infrastructure and civilian vessels have already prevented the shipment of approximately 1.5 million tonnes of grain since the beginning of the month. Before the disruption, Ukraine exported around 3.5 million tonnes of agricultural products each month through its seaports.
Alternative export routes are currently unable to replace maritime logistics. Even with maximum use of European corridors through Gdańsk and other terminals, export capacity is estimated at only 1.6 million tonnes per month. The situation has been further complicated by record-low water levels on the Danube, which have reduced barge capacity and disrupted river logistics.
Analysts warn that the consequences extend well beyond Ukraine. China, which imported around 6 million tonnes of Ukrainian grain annually before the full-scale invasion, could face supply disruptions if exports remain suspended. Other countries that rely on Ukrainian agricultural products may also be affected, increasing pressure on global grain prices and food security.
Experts believe the issue has become an international challenge rather than solely a Ukrainian one. Restoring safe navigation in the Black Sea is considered essential for stabilizing global grain markets, supporting Ukrainian producers, and ensuring reliable supplies to major importing countries.