Despite the approaching grain harvest season, ocean freight rates for Ukrainian agricultural exports continue to decline. According to ASAP Agri, freight rates have fallen by around $1 per metric ton over the past week for both coaster and handysize vessels. The decline has been driven by an oversupply of available vessels in the Black Sea and a sharp reduction in bunker fuel prices, allowing charterers to maintain strong negotiating positions.
Although traders have shown increasing interest in booking shipments for the new crop, activity in the spot market remains relatively limited. Current cargo volumes are still insufficient to create a shortage of vessels, preventing shipowners from significantly increasing freight rates. Freight from the Danube ports to the Eastern Mediterranean is currently estimated at $38–39 per metric ton, while shipments from Ukraine's deep-water Black Sea ports to Italy's eastern coast are quoted at approximately $22–23 per metric ton.
Lower bunker fuel prices have also contributed to the softer freight market. Marine gas oil prices in Istanbul have declined by nearly $200 per metric ton over the past two weeks, reducing vessel operating costs and offsetting the seasonal increase in shipping demand that usually accompanies the start of grain exports.
Market analysts believe future freight trends will depend on harvest progress, export volumes, and developments in global energy markets. If shipments of the new crop accelerate rapidly, freight rates could gradually recover. For now, however, strong competition among shipowners and ample vessel availability continue to work in favor of Ukrainian exporters by helping keep logistics costs under control.