The Ukrainian barley market remains under pressure from high stocks and weak demand. As of September 1, 2026, the country held approximately 2.5 million tonnes of barley, which was 83.7% more than on the same date last year. Total stocks of grains and pulses reached 24.6 million tonnes, exceeding the previous year's level by 10.1 million tonnes. Ukraine's barley harvest this season is estimated at 6.58 million tonnes.
At the same time, exports are not absorbing the available supply quickly enough. Since the beginning of the 2026/27 marketing year, Ukraine has exported only 440,000 tonnes of barley compared with 825,000 tonnes during the same period last season — a decline of almost 47%. During the first 28 days of September, exports amounted to around 72,000 tonnes versus 234,000 tonnes a year earlier. Logistics constraints, high transportation costs and weaker activity among major global buyers are limiting trade.
The surplus is already affecting purchase prices. At the beginning of October, feed barley delivered to Danube ports and terminals on Ukraine's western border was quoted at approximately UAH 6,500–7,000/t, or $140–150/t. Domestic processors were offering around UAH 5,500–6,000/t, while malting barley was purchased at UAH 6,700–7,000/t. Compared with early September, prices at Danube ports have declined by approximately UAH 200–800/t.
Developments on international markets are adding further pressure. The EU has reduced barley exports by 40% amid weaker demand, particularly from China, while some Middle Eastern importers remain cautious with new purchases. Under these conditions, a recovery in export demand will be the key factor for the Ukrainian market. Without stronger foreign sales, large domestic stocks are likely to continue limiting the potential for a significant price recovery.