Ukraine’s grain exports have slowed significantly at the beginning of the 2026/27 marketing year. As of September 4, the country had exported around 3.9 million tonnes of grains and pulses, approximately 14% less than during the same period last season. Wheat exports recorded the sharpest decline, falling by almost 40% to 1.8 million tonnes, while barley shipments dropped by 43% to 369 thousand tonnes. Corn exports, however, increased by 91% to almost 1.7 million tonnes.
August was particularly challenging for Ukrainian exporters. Total exports of the country’s main agricultural product groups fell by 41.5% to 2.15 million tonnes during the month. Grain shipments alone declined 2.7-fold, from 2.67 million tonnes in July to 988 thousand tonnes in August. Disruptions to maritime logistics remain one of the main factors, forcing exporters to redirect cargo through Danube ports and western border crossings.
More expensive logistics directly affect domestic purchasing prices and farm profitability. Under these conditions, Ukrainian producers may reconsider their crop structure in favour of commodities with a higher value per tonne. Rapeseed is one of the potential alternatives. Its exports increased sharply in August, reaching approximately 270–293 thousand tonnes, according to current estimates, several times the volume recorded in July.
If restrictions on maritime exports persist, wheat production could become less economically attractive, particularly for farms located far from the western border and the Danube. This could encourage producers to shift part of their acreage toward rapeseed and other higher-margin crops. However, final planting decisions will depend on market prices, weather conditions, seed availability and export opportunities for the 2027 harvest.