More than a month after the blockade of the Greater Odesa ports, Ukraine continues to restructure its agricultural export logistics. Market participants estimate that alternative routes will handle around 1.5 million tonnes of agricultural exports in August, while monthly demand is approximately 5 million tonnes. Even under the most optimistic scenario, overland transport corridors can move only 2–2.5 million tonnes per month, or roughly half of the required export volume.
Poland has emerged as one of the main alternatives. Current transit through the Polish border amounts to 250–300 thousand tonnes per month, but experts believe this could increase to 600 thousand tonnes. Achieving this would require higher rail capacity, more border-crossing trains, round-the-clock phytosanitary and veterinary inspections, and better utilization of Polish seaports. According to Ukrzaliznytsia, the theoretical reserve capacity for grain exports via Poland is about 425 thousand tonnes per month.
Despite this potential, the Polish route faces significant constraints. Alternative logistics cost approximately €90–110 per tonne, compared with about US$25–30 per tonne for shipments through the Greater Odesa ports before the blockade. Additional challenges include limited port handling capacity, shortages of specialized railcars, and bottlenecks at border crossings. At the same time, the restored Przemyśl–Khyriv standard-gauge railway could become an important asset, with an estimated capacity of 3.6 million tonnes of cargo annually.
Industry experts stress that expanding western export corridors is essential for sustaining Ukraine's agricultural trade, but these routes cannot fully replace deep-water Black Sea ports. Consequently, alongside investments in Polish transit infrastructure, Ukraine continues to seek international solutions to restore safe navigation in the Black Sea, which remains the country's most important export gateway for grain and oilseeds.