Export prices for Ukrainian feed wheat have started to rise. The market is being supported by stronger trader demand, developments on global markets and increased security risks in the Black Sea region. Complicated logistics remain another important factor, forcing exporters to factor alternative transportation costs and delivery risks into their purchasing prices.
At the beginning of the week, feed wheat at Danube ports was mainly trading at around $150–155/t, or approximately UAH 7,500–7,800/t. By comparison, domestic EXW prices had fallen to UAH 5,300–5,800/t due to weak exporter demand and expectations of increasing new-crop corn supplies.
Global markets are also providing some support to Ukrainian wheat. Major wheat futures increased by approximately 0.6–1.4% over the past week, while prices remained 2.3–3.9% higher than a month earlier. Supply disruptions in the Black Sea region were among the supporting factors. At the same time, substantial supply from major exporters continues to limit further price growth.
Logistics remains the main constraint for the Ukrainian market. Railcars at some border crossings toward Poland and Romania can wait for two to three weeks, while alternative export corridors are still unable to fully compensate for seaport capacity. This is also reflected in export volumes: during the first 21 days of September, Ukraine shipped around 652,000 tonnes of wheat, compared with 1.52 million tonnes during the same period last year. Further price dynamics will therefore depend not only on international demand but also on the availability and cost of export logistics.