Climate change is increasingly threatening the global supply of Japan's famous matcha tea. Rising nighttime temperatures and increasingly unstable spring weather are reducing both crop yields and tea quality, raising concerns about future shortages of this premium product.
Matcha is produced from tencha, a high-quality tea grown under shade. To develop its distinctive umami flavor, the plants require warm daytime temperatures of around 20–25°C combined with cool nights. However, in the Kyoto-Uji region—widely regarded as the birthplace of premium matcha—average spring temperatures have increased by approximately 0.6–1°C over the past century. Higher temperatures also stimulate the formation of catechins, making the tea noticeably more bitter.
To address these challenges, Japanese researchers are increasingly using genomic selection to develop more heat-tolerant tea varieties. The technology enables scientists to identify promising seedlings at an early stage, significantly accelerating breeding programs. Researchers emphasize that genomic selection complements rather than replaces traditional field trials.
Scientists also note that there is currently no evidence that improved heat tolerance necessarily reduces matcha's flavor quality. This suggests that future breeding programs may successfully combine climate resilience with the premium taste expected by consumers. As global demand for matcha continues to rise, climate-related production risks could tighten supplies and put additional upward pressure on prices in the years ahead.