Logistics disruptions in the Black Sea are already changing the way Turkish grain processors operate. Türkiye depends significantly on supplies from the Black Sea region, including Ukraine. Previously, the proximity of suppliers allowed processors to operate without maintaining large inventories and replenish stocks relatively quickly. Companies are now being forced to reconsider this approach and build larger reserves of raw materials.
The key issue is no longer only the price of grain but the ability to physically deliver it to buyers on time. Alternative routes cannot fully replace maritime transportation. For comparison, a 20,000-tonne grain shipment carried by a single vessel would require approximately 4,500 trucks. Moving such volumes exclusively by road is therefore extremely difficult.
Delays along the Danube route are creating additional challenges. According to a representative of Turkish company IMISK, vessel waiting times that previously averaged two to three days can now reach 12 days. This increases freight and demurrage costs and makes contract execution more difficult. Even a $5/t price advantage may lose its value if the cargo arrives two weeks late.
Despite the logistics challenges, Türkiye remains an important market for Ukrainian agricultural products. The country continues to require imports of corn, sunflower and soybeans for its processing and feed industries. Domestic corn production is estimated at around 8 million tonnes, while processors consume approximately 12 million tonnes, leaving an estimated deficit of 4 million tonnes. For Ukrainian exporters, the key constraint is therefore not a lack of demand but the stability and cost of delivering agricultural products.