The Ukrainian rapeseed market remains active due to stable demand from the European Union, although prices could come under pressure in the coming weeks. The main factor is a correction in Euronext rapeseed futures. In early October, indicative domestic prices had already declined by UAH 100–200/t at processing plants and by UAH 100–300/t for deliveries towards Danube ports.
The European market remains the key destination for Ukrainian rapeseed following disruptions at deep-sea ports. Analysts estimate that around 60–70% of rapeseed exports in August-October will be shipped by rail. Approximately 330,000 tonnes have already been contracted for October, with much of the required logistics capacity also secured. Demand at Ukraine's western border remains at around €460–465/t, although shipments are constrained by a shortage of railcars available at acceptable rates.
Global oilseed markets are adding further pressure. In late September, November rapeseed futures in Paris declined by around 2.1% to €536.5/t, losing 3.7% over the week. At the same time, some Ukrainian crushers are switching to sunflower seed processing, reducing domestic demand for rapeseed. Purchase prices at processing plants declined to approximately UAH 19,000–20,000/t during this period.
However, market participants largely view the current decline as a correction. Ukraine's rapeseed stocks as of October 1 are estimated at 2.6–2.7 million tonnes, while around 1.5 million tonnes could remain available by December-January. If European quotations recover towards the end of the year, Ukrainian purchase prices could also receive support. In the near term, the market will therefore remain highly dependent on Euronext dynamics, demand from European crushers and rail logistics costs.