The global durum wheat market remains in surplus for the third consecutive season. In 2026/27, production continues to exceed consumption, leading to further growth in global inventories. According to Arete, production is expected to increase by around 0.6 million tonnes, while ending stocks could rise by approximately 1.7 million tonnes compared with the previous season. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada also forecasts global durum stocks to increase by around 20% to 10.7 million tonnes.
One of the main reasons for the surplus is stronger production in North Africa, traditionally one of the world's major importers of durum wheat for pasta and couscous production. Improved domestic harvests are reducing the region's need for imported grain. Algeria, in particular, is expected to cover a significant share of its domestic requirements with its own production. As a result, global durum trade in 2026/27 could decline by approximately 15%.
Lower import demand is already affecting major exporters. Canada expects durum production of around 6.3 million tonnes, while exports are forecast at approximately 4.9 million tonnes, down 16% from the previous season. At the same time, abundant global supplies are limiting the potential for significant price growth. The average 2026/27 price for Canadian Western Amber Durum No. 1 with 13% protein is forecast at around CAD 270 per tonne.
However, a clear distinction is emerging between standard durum and higher-quality grain. Processors are increasingly interested in wheat with a high protein content, which is particularly important for premium pasta production. In Italy, the premium for durum containing 15% protein has already reached around €8–10/t and is showing signs of further growth. Therefore, despite the overall market surplus, grain quality and protein content could remain the main drivers of price premiums in the 2026/27 season.