Ukraine's agricultural sector could face a serious grain storage shortage as early as autumn 2026. According to industry estimates, a sharp decline in exports during the 2026/27 marketing year may leave up to 11 million tonnes of grain without sufficient storage capacity.
The main reason is the disruption of export logistics. Repeated attacks on the ports of Greater Odesa, which traditionally handle around 90% of Ukraine's maritime grain exports, have significantly reduced shipping volumes. The situation is further complicated by low water levels on the Danube River, limiting the capacity of alternative export routes.
Ukraine's total agricultural exports in the 2026/27 marketing year are projected to fall by 54% to 29.6 million tonnes. Wheat exports alone are expected to reach only 8.3 million tonnes, roughly half of earlier forecasts. As a result, much larger volumes of the new harvest will remain in domestic storage for extended periods.
Ukraine currently has approximately 59 million tonnes of grain storage capacity, but these facilities could reach full occupancy by early November. If logistics constraints persist, farmers may have to rely more heavily on temporary storage solutions such as grain bags or accelerate grain sales. Analysts warn that the resulting oversupply on the domestic market could place additional downward pressure on grain prices and reduce farm profitability.