Ukraine may finish the 2025/26 season with significant carryover stocks of wheat and corn. According to analysts, grain volumes in storage already exceed average levels, with total stocks reaching around 15.7 million tons, approximately 50% higher than last year.
The formation of large stocks is driven by both production and export factors. Corn harvest is estimated at 30–30.7 million tons, while wheat production is around 24 million tons. However, export pace has not kept up with production volumes.
Key factors:
— slower exports and logistical constraints
— weaker demand in certain markets
— part of the grain remains in the domestic market (5+ million tons of corn)
— accumulation of wheat carryover stocks up to 5.6 million tons
High stock levels may put additional pressure on prices, especially during periods of active supply. At the same time, steady demand in export markets partially prevents sharp price declines.
Overall, the market enters the new season with elevated inventories, meaning sales may become more challenging, and pricing will increasingly depend on export dynamics and logistics.