An intense heatwave across Ukraine and the European Union has become one of the main factors driving rapeseed prices higher ahead of the new marketing season. Temperatures reaching 35–42°C in France and other parts of Western Europe are increasing risks to crop development during the final stages of the growing season. As a result of deteriorating yield expectations, analytical agency Expana has lowered its forecast for EU rapeseed production to 20.3 million metric tons.
Weather concerns have immediately affected market prices. August rapeseed futures on Euronext climbed by nearly 2.9% to €518.75 per metric ton. In Ukraine, forward prices for new-crop rapeseed delivered to Black Sea ports remain within the range of $550–570 per ton, while domestic crushers are currently offering UAH 25,500–26,500 per ton. Analysts believe procurement prices may increase further as competition for raw material intensifies at the beginning of the season.
Ukraine is also expected to experience temperatures of 30–36°C, although forecast rainfall could partially reduce heat stress on crops. Even so, market participants continue to closely monitor weather conditions, as they will largely determine both yields and grain quality in the coming weeks. For exporters, the current market environment remains favorable because stronger international prices continue to support the competitiveness of Ukrainian rapeseed.
Market analysts note that future price movements will largely depend on weather developments across major producing regions. If extreme temperatures persist or cause greater-than-expected crop losses, tighter European supplies could provide additional support for rapeseed prices. For Ukrainian farmers, this may translate into stronger revenues from the new harvest, although final market performance will also depend on global demand, harvest progress, and competition in export markets.