Prolonged rainfall in October 2026 is complicating Ukraine's corn harvest and increasing production costs for farmers. According to analysts at the PUSK agricultural cooperative, approximately 3.5 million tonnes of corn had been harvested by mid-October, while the majority of the crop — around 25–27 million tonnes — remained in the fields. Unfavourable weather could extend harvesting into the winter months, although leaving corn unharvested over winter has not yet become widespread.
The main challenge is high grain moisture, which requires additional drying before storage or sale. Experts estimate that drying costs could reach $10–20/t, and in some cases rise to $30/t. With purchase prices remaining low, these expenses significantly reduce the profitability of corn production. Delayed harvesting also places additional pressure on machinery, grain elevators and logistics infrastructure.
Domestic corn prices remain under pressure. According to PUSK, indicative purchase prices at Ukrainian ports stand at approximately $160–163/t, with a possible decline to $150/t if market conditions deteriorate. Analysts estimate Ukraine's current corn export capacity at around 1.5 million tonnes per month. Due to logistics constraints and accumulating grain stocks, even rising international prices may not quickly translate into higher revenues for Ukrainian producers.
At the same time, international demand could strengthen. The United States Department of Agriculture forecasts Ukrainian corn exports at 22 million tonnes, while PUSK analysts consider 17–19 million tonnes a more realistic estimate. They also expect Europe to potentially increase corn imports by 3.5–5 million tonnes due to lower domestic production. However, they do not anticipate Ukrainian port prices recovering to $170–180/t before January–February 2027. Weather conditions, drying costs and access to export routes will therefore remain the main factors affecting farmers over the coming months.
Original source: PUSK Agricultural Cooperative analysts (Ukrainian Agrarian Council).