Negotiations between the United States and Iran are already affecting global commodity markets. Expectations of fully restoring navigation through the Strait of Hormuz—one of the world’s most important routes for oil and fertilizer transportation—have contributed to lower prices for crude oil, natural gas, and nitrogen fertilizers. Markets are responding positively to the prospect of de-escalation, as only a few months ago the Middle East conflict was creating serious risks of supply shortages and higher production costs.
For Ukraine, this development could lead to lower costs for key agricultural inputs, particularly diesel fuel and nitrogen fertilizers. Industry experts note that after global oil prices fell from above $90 per barrel to around $77–80, the Ukrainian fuel market began to experience gradual price corrections. However, the impact is not immediate because much of the fuel supply was purchased under earlier contracts, while exchange-rate fluctuations and logistics expenses continue to influence domestic pricing.
Analysts do not expect fuel prices to return to the levels seen at the beginning of the year. Currency depreciation and higher operating costs offset part of the benefits created by lower oil prices. A similar situation exists in the fertilizer market, where prices are gradually declining but remain highly sensitive to geopolitical developments and natural gas supply conditions, as gas is the primary raw material used in nitrogen fertilizer production.
Experts advise farmers not to rush into large-scale purchases, but also not to postpone procurement for too long. If negotiations between Washington and Tehran conclude successfully, additional price reductions may occur in the coming weeks. However, any renewed tensions in the Middle East could quickly reverse the trend. As a result, a phased purchasing strategy for fuel, fertilizers, and other inputs ahead of harvest and autumn planting campaigns may offer the best balance between risk management and potential cost savings.