European buyers have largely stopped purchasing Ukrainian wheat at the western border after Ukraine exhausted its duty-free wheat export quota to the European Union. Any further shipments are now subject to import duties, making Ukrainian wheat significantly less price-competitive for most European buyers.
The development has increased pressure on Ukraine's domestic wheat market. Grain supplies remain abundant, but sales opportunities have narrowed because of both logistics constraints and weaker demand from EU customers. According to White Brokers, domestic wheat prices continued to trend downward during the past week.
As a result, the main export flows are being redirected through the Danube ports and the Romanian port of Constanța. At the same time, DAP Constanța prices strengthened slightly, with Grade 2 milling wheat reaching US$244 per tonne and Grade 3 wheat US$241 per tonne, partially offsetting the loss of the EU market.
Market analysts believe that developing alternative export corridors has become even more critical following the exhaustion of the EU quota. However, increased shipments through the Danube and Constanța cannot fully replace duty-free access to the European market, meaning abundant grain supplies and limited export logistics are likely to continue weighing on domestic wheat prices in the near term.