Ukrainian oilseed processing plants may reduce vegetable oil production due to restrictions on maritime exports. According to estimates by the Ukroliyaprom Association, sunflower oil shipments could decline from approximately 500,000 to 300,000 tonnes, while rapeseed and soybean oil exports could amount to around 50,000–60,000 tonnes. The main reason is the difficulty of shipping finished products through Black Sea ports, limiting processors' ability to plan production and purchase raw materials.
The main risk for processors is the accumulation of finished vegetable oil at production facilities. If products cannot be shipped to buyers on time, storage tanks fill up, forcing plants to reduce output or temporarily suspend operations. According to earlier statements by Ukroliyaprom, available oil storage capacity generally covers only 5–7 days of continuous operation. This directly affects the volume of sunflower seed, soybean and rapeseed purchases from Ukrainian farmers.
Domestic sunflower seed purchase prices currently range between UAH 18,000 and 20,000 per tonne. However, export restrictions do not automatically translate into lower retail prices for bottled vegetable oil. Final consumer prices also depend on processing, electricity, fuel, transportation costs and global market prices. Unfavourable weather has created another challenge: according to the industry association, the oilseed processing season is running two to three weeks behind schedule.
To stabilise the situation, Ukroliyaprom is calling for priority transportation of vegetable oil exports. The association estimates that one rail wagon carrying oil can generate approximately seven times more foreign exchange revenue than a wagon carrying grain. For farmers, restoring stable demand from processing plants remains essential. If export restrictions persist, processors may reduce raw material purchases, placing additional pressure on Ukraine's domestic oilseed market.
Original source: RBC-Ukraine