The formation of the rapeseed market in Ukraine for the 2026 season is characterized by a shift in producers’ behavioral strategies, particularly a decline in activity within the forward contract segment. Unlike previous periods, farmers are increasingly inclined to postpone sales, focusing instead on the current spot market conditions.
A key factor behind this behavior is the gap between forward and spot prices. Initial forward contract indications for the new crop are formed at around $430–435 per ton, which is perceived by producers as an insufficient level for price fixation. At the same time, actual prices in the physical market, along with expectations of further growth, create incentives to hold inventory and avoid early hedging.
An additional factor is the relative stabilization of the global oilseed market. Rapeseed futures on European exchanges are trading within a relatively narrow range without a clearly defined trend. However, there remains potential for price growth in the event of strengthening related segments, particularly the soybean market. This supports expectations of further price increases and reduces motivation to enter into forward contracts.
In the domestic market, the situation is reinforced by strong demand for remaining stocks of the previous harvest. In 2026, prices for old-crop rapeseed have reached $560–570 per ton, significantly exceeding forward price levels. This price gap intensifies asymmetry in expectations and encourages producers to maximize returns through spot market sales.
From a macroeconomic perspective, the decline in forward contracting reflects the growing role of expectations in price formation. Under conditions of relatively stable supply and strong demand from European processors, the market is entering a phase of anticipatory balance, where producers’ decisions directly influence liquidity and volatility.
Thus, the current behavioral model of farmers indicates a gradual shift from conservative price-fixing strategies toward more flexible sales management. While this approach increases potential profitability, it also raises risks associated with market uncertainty and fluctuations in global prices.