How Much Support Ukrainian Farmers Could Receive After EU Accession

Following Ukraine’s accession to the European Union, Ukrainian farmers will be able to receive financial support under European agricultural policy. However, the mechanism is likely to differ from the model applied to countries that joined the EU in previous enlargement rounds. According to estimates by the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting and the Warsaw Enterprise Institute, support for Ukraine’s agricultural sector could start at around €300 million per year in the first year of membership and gradually increase to €1.2 billion annually over the following ten years.

The scale of Ukraine’s agricultural sector will be one of the key factors in future negotiations. Ukraine has more than 32.7 million hectares of agricultural land. If the country were immediately granted access to the current area-based EU payment system, Bruegel estimates that it could theoretically receive around €85 billion over seven years, or more than €12 billion annually. This is one of the reasons why a gradual introduction of agricultural support is considered a more likely scenario.

The future system could also include limits on individual payments. The proposed DABIS model introduces a regressive payment scale and a maximum of €100,000 per farm per year. Analysts believe that medium-sized agricultural enterprises could benefit the most from such a system. Ukraine has around 20,000 medium-sized agricultural businesses, with an average farm size of approximately 485 hectares.

Large agricultural holdings could see a more limited financial effect because of the payment ceiling. At the same time, around 4 million small producers, responsible for approximately 30% of Ukraine’s agricultural output, may face a different challenge — formal registration and compliance with EU administrative requirements. The actual level of future support will therefore depend not only on Ukraine’s accession to the EU but also on the reform of the Common Agricultural Policy, the terms of the transition period and the ability of Ukrainian farms to comply with European rules.